going to turkey :-)

on friday i did not trade because i prepared for a trip to my wife´s land

i will probably be off the markets for a week now

intermarket breakout

just one trade today - breakout of the daily low.

• question: why should this go down? 
• answer: because of the predictable liquidity of buyers

risk free, i am defining stoploss

let´s check what is bellow daily low

safe exit

• question: what do you need to lead the price out of a daily range?
• answer: you need guaranteed liquidity on the side of sellers
• question: how will you get it there?
• answer: by creating the illusion of the market being cheap, which attracts aggressive buyers 

190 usd within 1 deal in 20 minutes is ok

fake limits on depth of market

fomc day. i don't like fomc days. i did not understand today´s market and this screenshot is a proof

first i went short (with a drawdown, lots of nerves and a zero result), after that i changed my mind and went long (without a drawdown, without nerves and almost zero result). no, i just didn´t understand today´s market movements. 

but here is something worth mentioning. when i was in an opened loss, there were huge buy limit orders on depth of market -  right bellow the daily high. something i really didn´t like to see there!!

fortunately, they appeared to be fake and just tempting bigger sell market orders to move the price lower quickly - we can see it here very clearly - they moved out as soon as bigger sell market orders came into the market. the price dropped

if there were real, and filled, i would be forced to close the position at another break of the highest high (because it would mean big money are buying the nasdaq futures and i don´t want to be short against it).

the result 70 usd at e-mini nq is really funny (and sad) compared to the 5x bigger drawdonwn i went through.. 

as i said. i did not understand today´s market. at all!

market neutralization

it was quite a peculiar session today. after open, we could see higher numbers on volume, the price surging to new territories, and, especially at nasdaq, sell market orders being eaten at higher prices by buy limit side. this is always the orderflow context telling me i should not sell short. from my viewpoint, there was no chance to catch the daily high, there was no observable extinction of buyers

today´s market auction was totally different from what we were used to from previous days. it was thick, solid, compact and introvert-like. i was patiently waiting for a signal to jump in.

i preferred shorts on e-mini dow jones somewhere around here

it was quite apparent that dow was undervalued, luring buyers (see the delta). however, the timing entry was not clear enough - i wanted to see the sentiment after breaking high of the consolidation which did not happen, and therefore, i was without the deal (maybe i could/should have been little bit more aggressive. the intermarket state was really evident..)

after a while, the market dropped to the ground. what a stoprun to daily low and long-term-consolidation buyers! it was one of the most volatile movement in this month (and i was off..) and a nice example of a (long term) market neutralization

from now on, we start playing from the zero point. the mode in which the market operated since then changed radically..

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i took just one trade today. long at nq where the orderflow situation was absolutely perfect

unfortunately i was not able to gain as high profit as i expected, because another form of (local) market neutralization came into place while holding the position. i was forced to close the deal right here (and it appeared to be a wise decision)

i felt sad and angry because i really expected to make much more out of this trade - the orderflow situation was amazing and the result not even 100 usd is a great disappointment

timed out exits

another extremely boring, non-volatile session with a balanced profile. favourable for karel (market maker), unfavourable for traders. i came late again, somewhere around lunch time. the market slept and did not want to wake up.

i tried two trades today, and karel played with me a lot and forced me to left both positions with zero result. i used timed out exits for both the deals.

the first trade was short at nq in a valid intermarket state with a nice overpressure of breakout buyers. this is a good orderflow situation except there is no secondary liquidity for closing the first target, thus making it little bit more risky. anyway, it was one of  the best situations today and i am in

i am getting rid of the deal after more that 20 minutes when it was clear enough that the edge of the entry was gone. the time being spent in an open positions is in inverse relationship with the validity of an orderfow setup. i am out.

the second deal was short at ym, again. one of the best market auction setups so far - according to tapereading we can see a slight gradation of buyers and the first target is in logical level. i am in

but.. shorting double top is always risky because it is too visible for everyone, therefore being inclinable for karel´s conspiracy games.. and yes.. he started to absorb high sellers which are predictable for me, the risk of the deal increased accordingly. moreover, i spent lot of time in that position and the edge of the trade almost dimished. i am out

karel won :-(

it is all about (ab)using liquidity, really..

two examples of how intermarket liquidity is abused to move nasdaq higher today

first, very clearly visible, huge volume of high sellers coming from the highest high - the risk area is within risk reward.. nice entry

second, trapped sellers after fast bearish bar pulling back from the highest high in intermarket state

trades against the public

today´s markets were readable, but, again, terribly nonvolatile, the first two trades were in the name of intermarket liquidity abuse. 

the first one on ym is another example of a speculation on a safe zone above daily high in intermarket divergence 4, on e-mini dow jones - this is 100% entry - no need to think about it at all

the second trade was short on e-mini nasdaq. the idea behind this trade is again the same - liquidity of deep buyers in intermarket state + gradation of late buyers who jumped into the market when it was confirmed that it reversed.

safe exit within the daily range

the third trade was a small loss when i tried  to catch the daily low..

after my entry the market absorbed huge volume of buyers which made the position very risky. i closed that deal at another break of the daily low - even though i could have let it because, according to the tape reader, the seller´s power was not strong.. retrospectively i consider this to be a mistake, it would have been much better to buy some more instead of closing the deal right here. but retrospectively doesn´t count.. there were risky elements (ask volume, extreme negative tick) and you never know how deep the price can dig..

the last trade was very small., long on nq into the weakening concentration of sellers

without volatility - i took what was given 

result 183 usd was ok for today´s nonvolatile markets. these days are generally difficult due to low volatility

safe zone speculation

all the markets are breaking their highs and i am sure that e-mini dow jones will not break it before it pulls back against the greed buyers - thus, there is a safe zone above dow´s daily high

the expected pull back against the buyers :-)

extremely lazy markets

today was an extraordinarily lazy day. i came to the markets at about 12:00 chicago time and took 5 trades (3 at ym, 2 at nq) and only one of them (the last one) gave me some profit of 100 usd - the others ended up with plus minus zero, because i was unable to manage the position correctly in such a slow and nonvolatile day..

the timing entry of the last trade at ym was supported with times and sales where i noticed strong pressure to breakout long and a series of harsh (unintelligent) buy market orders on times and sales

the second target was planned to the other extreme of market profile

result 

orderflow entry model

this is a model example of an orderflow entry - a reversal micro-consolidation breakout for short

here is the context

the secret

TRADE AGAINST THE PREDICTABILITY!

shorting the markets

on friday the markets started to fall from their premarket maximums with slow pace, and not very clean market auction. i was unable to detect any clear situation for an entry at the beggining of the session, so i stood behind. i had a preference to go short and the first readible and obvious situation appeared at 9:10 chicago time on nasdaq - unfortunatelly i was not concentrated well and was unable to jump in. after that, i took couple of shorts on both the markets.

e-mini nasdaq

e-mini dow jones

profit 360 usd

tracing the market maker

another day with low volatility and non directional price movement - these are generally days where market maker opperates and i choose the trades against public that was catched in a market maker´s trap. a typical trade of this sort was today´s long at dow jones where market maker first moved the price lower to took the stoplosses of the buyers from consolidation and at the same time catched lot of reactive sellers who jumped into the subsequent price drop,

after that the price went up

intermarket liquidity abuse

today i start with the whole screenshot first.

it was a very readable day today, i catched the open and after half an hour later i am done. today´s market auction was speaking very clearly to me, mistakenly, i did not noticed the correct level of yesterday´s close. that is why the first trade ended up with a small loss. if i had paid more attention about where the nasdaq futures closed yesterday, i wouldn´t have opened the first long possition. 

today´s entries depict very nicely the "conspiracy approach" about market price movements and the abuse of intermarket (sellers´) liquidity to move e-mini nasdaq higher

the first one

the second one

another non-volatile day

another slow, nonvolatile daily session. i came late to the charts again. so the most productive part of the day was over. what attracted my attention was the intermarket setup, three out of four markets were breaking daily high, only nasdaq (as usual) was losing. better observable on higher time frame.

this intermarket analysis tells me that there is going to be strong buying pressure on e-mini nasdaq. it is undervalued and hence it should move up, right? - im short against the heady buyers whose i consider less smart in this situation - buying liquidity is going to be abused for selling/moving the market price lower, and i speculate to that thing.. this is how the orderbook (footprint chart) looked like at that level

the second trade was nq long, the timing entry was very precise due to a combination of volume analysis with a break in a micro consolidation and times and sales tape where it was observable that the side of sellers is stupid and the side of buyers is smart - i am going with the smart one :-) .. low heat entry

the whole picture