ym should fall down

today the open was really weak with low volatiltiy and tedious price action. i had to wait 1/2 hour for the first trade that i took right here.

form the dislocation of the markets i can assume that ym should move down, the orderflow is not the best but is quite allright. opening 4 contracts.

it took a little drawdown but the price slided as expected..

here i have 3 contracts from 4 cloesd and the trade is risk free

.

the final contract is closed after the seller´s emotion

it was the one and only trade becaus the price action was really slow.

+300 usd. 

finito. no need to waste time with such markets

study of velocity

this is a new, quite simple but very useful study that i wrote a couple of days ago to measure the price velocity or "volatility" if you want.

probably most of you know ATR indicator which is commonly used by all who want to track the volatility or its changes. but the problem with ATR is, that it doesn´t really show much about how the price behaved.

it only calculates the difference of highs and lows of a bar and then divides this number by a preset variable to return an average. if you have a bar which has 10 ticks in size (high-low) than the true range is 10. very simple.

but it doesn´t tell much about HOW the price behaved within the period of the ten ticks. maybe it moved 9 ticks up, then nine 9 down, then again 9 ticked up, down, up, down, up, down.. you got the idea.. within just one bar.

so at the end of the day, the price could make 100 ticks long movement which is hidden within a single bar..

this study - which i called velocity - on the other hand, calculates how many times the price changed within a period time. so u get the precise number of the volatility. or we might say "nervosity" of price.

i did not have time to test it much but it looks promising mostly as an input to automatic trade-management for algorithmic trading..

here is a simple example (subgraph 2) - you can see that even though the candlesticks are of the same size all the time, the velocity studies gradually goes down

a small trade with a small position

just one long today on e-mini dow.

this one.

nothing special to say about it. except, that it was that kind of a trade that was 100% repeatable for me.

i took it with only two contracts, +180 usd. virtually zero drawdown which is a sign of a good timing entry

dow jones futures short (after trapped late buyers)

these days after american lunch the volatility drops significantly and the markets are literally dead. trading in such environment takes lot of discipline when t comes to waiting for an opportunity. there are not many opportunities these days, so whenever one appears, one need to catch it quickly, automatically.

this was the only tradeable situation today. ym futures tried to break the swing high but the buyers were absorbed. the entry moment is here:

here is the support at market orders that show diminishing power of buy market side - this would be a better moment for the entry

a nice "second entry" in the area of my "first entry"

wmo shows no interest at buy market side and it is flat - good for "second entry"

although i planned the second target further, i closed it prematurely because i did not have any profit today and the market were terribly slow and tiring today (and about to close in a while)