short nq, short ym.. and again..

two trades right after the open.

the first one was here as a speculation for a breakdown. the entry was quite aggressive and the risk of the trade was not properly calculated before triggering.

 i assumed the price would slide down really quickly, but it did not happen. it wen up so here i closed the trade in a loss of cca 250 usd

good point on this trade was that i jump out really quickly, without any hesitation. these are situations that need to reverse immediately and if they dont, i get out.

another trade was one or two minutes after the first one.

here i am short at dow jones - opening 4 contracts as well as in the previous one but the last on was not filled. i assumed the price should not go above high where i would close the whole position

 here is the exit. in fixed trade management. with only three contracts cca +250 so i zeroed out the previous loss.

 these are two examples of a very strict risk/trade management. i play any russian roulette here. i only execute, without any emotion

here i was ready to open aanother short at ym again, but i waited the price to tick little bit higher so that i could place my stoploss into the safe area above high easily..

yet, it did not go any higher, so the drop was without me...

nq long

this was probably the best entry in this week. the boogie-woogie studies under the main chart are my acsil based subgraphs. they are amazingly strange so far, like spoiled kids, not doing what they are supposed to do ..

ex-it

pretty freaking sweet.. 

+ 450 usd/one trade

it looks amazing..

yeah. the markets were falling today, the volatility was doubled compared to a normal state so that the risk and reward had to be doubled too and the opened position had to be halved.

currently, i trade smaller positions, so i opened only two contracts right here

the timing entry of this trade later in the afternoon was based on the tick-nyse indicator. the first part of the position was closed in the profit, the other part (which i meant to close quite far) ended up at stoploss.

it looks amazing, doesn´t it?

one long trade after one long hour

today i took only one trade on nasdaq 100. it was long, and i had to wait for it for almost one hour.

the session started in quite a fast tempo, and i expected to get a trade signal quickly. increased volatility should offer some signals to jump in, but it was not the case today.

the market auction was not readable and i could not find a low risk entry for oppening a trade.

finaly, i found this situation.

due to increased volatility i opened only half of my normal six-contracts position, prepared to compensate up to six in case the price will move against me to the level of stoploss while still holding the edge of the entry..

unfortunately, it did not happen, the price oscillated little bit back, but not enough to add to the position.

here is the exit

i mean, this looks like a small trade in the picture of the whole intraday session, but it is +450 usd. with three contracts it is not bad.

the exit was executed according to fixed (but due to increased volatility expanded) trade management.

the first 2 trades in 2018

after a little break, i decided to continue publishing here on this small blog. i started to trade this week, over the christmas time i was in istanbul and did not have good access to the internet.

these two trades were based on the same logic - there are reactive sellers in the NQ that are supposed to be shaken off the market.

i take long against them

this was the first trade that had pretty cool timing entry. the price went up immediately, offered +700 usd profit in a couple of minutes

the second trade was here - opening six contracts as usual

 

again, virtually no drawdown. price runs up quickly, the exit was right here - this is a save exit, after that, the price fell down

depth of market - thin vs. thick offered liquidity

here is an interesting situation on depth of market (dom) in intermarket state. it is easily visible that the offered liquidity on the bid side is much thinner that on the ask side.

the presumption is that the price should move into the side of thinner liquidity - it is going to be easier, as there are no "walls" of waiting limit orders. 

it is just a presumption now - no data have been collected to prove this idea.

what we have to take into account in such a situation is the intermarket state and the predictability of retail market orders. here we have ym under the daily low, all other markets are above.

it gives the (stupid) retail traders feeling that ym is cheap and that they should buy it. they start buying.

limit side with quoting market maker´s orders builds thicker layers of sell limit order to retard the movement up and sell in a bigger quantity against the retail public. the movement down is much easier because the quoting buy limit side is weaker.

this is how the situatuion looks at market orders with depth of market. the offered liquidity on dom overtuns and the price sinks into it

what happened next was that the price dropped down against the buying public. in this particular case it would have hit o the first target only but it doesn´t matter - there was a strong buying sentiment on nyse tick at that time and even thought the price went down to hit the stops of public..

here is the footprint chart of this situation

more in depth study of this phenomena needs to be done before taking these situation as a tradable edge

after rollover

today is the first day after rollover of futures contracts and the market is pretty lazy. i took two trades today, first at nasdaq at 8:41 long (only with one contracts as it was risky) and a second, which was a beautiful situation in orderflow - very clear exhaustion of buyers

this is the entry moment (mid - which i consider a very strong line and perfect orderflow situation)

this is the moment when i hit the first target making the position risk free

and this is the second target

this the intraday price action with my trade - as you can see the range is pretty tight

result

magnificant stoplosses

today

yesterday 

no comment

eeeeh..

this was really fortune with the third target:-(

this was a nice entry on the exhaustion of sellers with a quick fill of the first part of the position

trying to trail the third one.. but the market is a bastard sometimes - it took my sell order and went up 

anyway. quite a good result 275 usd today

dow jones futures short (after trapped late buyers)

these days after american lunch the volatility drops significantly and the markets are literally dead. trading in such environment takes lot of discipline when t comes to waiting for an opportunity. there are not many opportunities these days, so whenever one appears, one need to catch it quickly, automatically.

this was the only tradeable situation today. ym futures tried to break the swing high but the buyers were absorbed. the entry moment is here:

here is the support at market orders that show diminishing power of buy market side - this would be a better moment for the entry

a nice "second entry" in the area of my "first entry"

wmo shows no interest at buy market side and it is flat - good for "second entry"

although i planned the second target further, i closed it prematurely because i did not have any profit today and the market were terribly slow and tiring today (and about to close in a while)