one long trade after one long hour

today i took only one trade on nasdaq 100. it was long, and i had to wait for it for almost one hour.

the session started in quite a fast tempo, and i expected to get a trade signal quickly. increased volatility should offer some signals to jump in, but it was not the case today.

the market auction was not readable and i could not find a low risk entry for oppening a trade.

finaly, i found this situation.

due to increased volatility i opened only half of my normal six-contracts position, prepared to compensate up to six in case the price will move against me to the level of stoploss while still holding the edge of the entry..

unfortunately, it did not happen, the price oscillated little bit back, but not enough to add to the position.

here is the exit

i mean, this looks like a small trade in the picture of the whole intraday session, but it is +450 usd. with three contracts it is not bad.

the exit was executed according to fixed (but due to increased volatility expanded) trade management.

the first 2 trades in 2018

after a little break, i decided to continue publishing here on this small blog. i started to trade this week, over the christmas time i was in istanbul and did not have good access to the internet.

these two trades were based on the same logic - there are reactive sellers in the NQ that are supposed to be shaken off the market.

i take long against them

this was the first trade that had pretty cool timing entry. the price went up immediately, offered +700 usd profit in a couple of minutes

the second trade was here - opening six contracts as usual

 

again, virtually no drawdown. price runs up quickly, the exit was right here - this is a save exit, after that, the price fell down

dow jones sell off speculation on friday night

yesterday i took these two trades on dow jones futures. the first short after open was taken with 6 contracts, the second one with two only. the first trade had a runner with was planned to be closed somewhere near the low of the day,

unfortunately, the market filled my trailing stop precisely and dropped significantly afterward.

what was interesting at the second trade was waiting liquidity of the huge buy limit orders at the closing time.

here is the prinscreen, the white line on depth of market shows huge limit orders waiting to be filled. at first the price rebounds couple of time from this level.

at the end it went through filling all the waiting limits (cca 230 on one level). as these limits were filled, i closed the trade, because i expected the price to move higher. anyway, it didn´t. the market closed somewhere around near this level. 

here is how the footprint chart looks at that particular place. you can see higher ammoung of sell market order paired up withthe waiting buy limit side (te low of the bar at 14:58)

here is the slower timeframe (30 min). the trade looks good, pity it was with a small position only

result +720 usd

dumb sellers vs. smart sellers

here are two example of sell market volume cluster.

in the first case, market orders reveal huge sell market orders and the price move against it. in the second case, it doesn't reveal any aggressive sell market orders.

this is the footprint chart 

this is how it happened

this might be one of the way how to discriminate between aggressive and tender approach through wmo and out filter some falls signals and infilter some missed opportunities. not necessarily always huge cluster in my way is a negative signal for entry. but it needs more in-depth study of this phenomena

iceberg order at 4936,50

a clever iceberg order appeared today on e-mini nasdaq futures, buying huge sell market orders at the precise price 4936,50.

it was in an intermarket unballanced state so the seller´s side here was definitely the "more stupid" one and the buy market´s side was the "clever one"

this is the detailed orderflow footprint chart

 here is the intermarket situation with seller´s side to be tempted into it

this is how the price continued to run upwards for the stoplosess

nq long

a second entry with timing based on the extinction of sellers. the potencial was nice

closed safely before a possible breakout