super-bad backtest results from a super simple acsil code

i have been doing some acsil coding sierra chart lately and built up a couple of new setups.

sometimes it is quite time-consuming and difficult to build a good strategy that returns nice results.

of course, backtest are not the only thing to weight and worry about, but it is definitely the first thing u see.

the worst backtests are not the one that had poor results but the ones where the profit factor is somewhere around 1,00. it means that the profits and losses are equal.

some might think that the worst backtests are simply the ones with the worsts result, but no, that is not necessarily true. at least not for me..

because when i find a strategy that is really poor and loses 9 times out of 10 entries, i can simply change the direction for each entry and... voila, i got a pretty good scoring one.

today i run a backtest that returned really horrible results. i mean, i have never run a test that would be as bad as this one.

it has 0.23 profit factor which means that from each 5 entries, 4 of them go to sl..

i tested only 40 days, but the number of trades is 505 which is quite high.. so yeah, it might say something..

next step?

reverse the position and run it on a longer frame..

maybe, this piece of crap will become one of the most profitable strategies in the entire freaking universe :-)

who knows..

short nq, short ym.. and again..

two trades right after the open.

the first one was here as a speculation for a breakdown. the entry was quite aggressive and the risk of the trade was not properly calculated before triggering.

 i assumed the price would slide down really quickly, but it did not happen. it wen up so here i closed the trade in a loss of cca 250 usd

good point on this trade was that i jump out really quickly, without any hesitation. these are situations that need to reverse immediately and if they dont, i get out.

another trade was one or two minutes after the first one.

here i am short at dow jones - opening 4 contracts as well as in the previous one but the last on was not filled. i assumed the price should not go above high where i would close the whole position

 here is the exit. in fixed trade management. with only three contracts cca +250 so i zeroed out the previous loss.

 these are two examples of a very strict risk/trade management. i play any russian roulette here. i only execute, without any emotion

here i was ready to open aanother short at ym again, but i waited the price to tick little bit higher so that i could place my stoploss into the safe area above high easily..

yet, it did not go any higher, so the drop was without me...

another sierra chart acsil study

i have been currently working on another acsil study which will measure intermarket divergence and filter out some trades in case the markets are too dis-correlated.

this is going to be quite a useful study which i plan to implement into all the automatic trading system. i use correlations a lot in my discretional trading and finaly i have found a way how to solve it programmatically.

against late sellers

this trade is a model situation where i take long against late sellers.

the pattern is pretty clear - all the markets are running down, nasdaq 100 is little bit higher so the general public sees it as a "good opportunity" for selling.

but the general public is most of the time wrong.

the price retreats against them at least till the area where i can close my first target and make a risk free position..

3 trades, 3 contracts, 3 profits

today i took three trades on e-mini nasdaq 100, all were with three contracts only and all were closed it proper fixed trade management.

here is the screenshot showing the closed trades.

many people when they this screenshot or another screenshot with my trades have the idea that it was a mistake that i closed the trades so early.

sometimes people really wonder and ask me, why i don't hold on the trades longer, for a longer profits.

the answer?

i am an intraday trader, not a god.

i don't know if the price will move further or retreats back. i am not a prophet. and i don't try to be.

closing trades in a fixed trade management is the best thing you - as a trader - can do. 

because by closing them properly, you are not playing russian roulette. you are not positioning yourself in the place of "a prophet". you are simply doing your job correctly.

here is the results. 3 (little) trades, with only 3 contracts. 3 profits. + 730 usd netto. 

the first 2 trades in 2018

after a little break, i decided to continue publishing here on this small blog. i started to trade this week, over the christmas time i was in istanbul and did not have good access to the internet.

these two trades were based on the same logic - there are reactive sellers in the NQ that are supposed to be shaken off the market.

i take long against them

this was the first trade that had pretty cool timing entry. the price went up immediately, offered +700 usd profit in a couple of minutes

the second trade was here - opening six contracts as usual

 

again, virtually no drawdown. price runs up quickly, the exit was right here - this is a save exit, after that, the price fell down

sellers liquidity abusion

a video of one of my trades, two contracts only. i was trading somewhere outside in a park with a poor internet connection. not the best setup

yesterday´s nasdaq

couple of short signals

magnificant stoplosses

today

yesterday 

no comment

market orders extinction

a nice example of timing entry with market orders study. with every new high, the market orders diminish

the first target is nicely placed in the thickened price action

nq long

a second entry with timing based on the extinction of sellers. the potencial was nice

closed safely before a possible breakout