one long trade after one long hour

today i took only one trade on nasdaq 100. it was long, and i had to wait for it for almost one hour.

the session started in quite a fast tempo, and i expected to get a trade signal quickly. increased volatility should offer some signals to jump in, but it was not the case today.

the market auction was not readable and i could not find a low risk entry for oppening a trade.

finaly, i found this situation.

due to increased volatility i opened only half of my normal six-contracts position, prepared to compensate up to six in case the price will move against me to the level of stoploss while still holding the edge of the entry..

unfortunately, it did not happen, the price oscillated little bit back, but not enough to add to the position.

here is the exit

i mean, this looks like a small trade in the picture of the whole intraday session, but it is +450 usd. with three contracts it is not bad.

the exit was executed according to fixed (but due to increased volatility expanded) trade management.

against late sellers

this trade is a model situation where i take long against late sellers.

the pattern is pretty clear - all the markets are running down, nasdaq 100 is little bit higher so the general public sees it as a "good opportunity" for selling.

but the general public is most of the time wrong.

the price retreats against them at least till the area where i can close my first target and make a risk free position..

a small trade with a small position

just one long today on e-mini dow.

this one.

nothing special to say about it. except, that it was that kind of a trade that was 100% repeatable for me.

i took it with only two contracts, +180 usd. virtually zero drawdown which is a sign of a good timing entry

come on man, this is going to rise!

well, these two trades are quite readable i would say, and the price went up really quickly after i clicked into them..

the timing entry at the first one is not really easy but .. what is easy in daytrading after all? we can see a sharp & emotional move downwards from the highest high.

the word "emotional" is really what makes it important because i trade against the emotional people so i really enjoy seeing something like this.

it was validated with the actual non-correlation of the markets. the entry was planed couple of minutes before it actually took place. here is the hit.

the other one was right here, after nq discovered new high and tempted high sellers to jump in. as always, i go against them, because they are too predictable. 

nasdaq 100 futures filled with huge sell market orders

on friday there was a big selling subject on e-mini nasdaq 100 which is clearly visible from the attached chart. 

nasdaq was undervalued compared to other three us indexes, which is always a good constellation for building a bigger position into the short side. the selling subject used active market orders that were really big (up to 200 sell market size) in the frequency of a couple of tens of seconds.

that means it was not really a high-frequency short term algorithm, but rather a fond or a bank that holds a position for a longer period of time.

thus, both their risk and their reward tend to much further from what i use in my intraday trading and it is not always clever to track it

that is why i can without any problems take a long and go against the big selling subject because the rotation i speculate on, is - compared to their risk/reward - really small.

this was one trade with a clear timing entry base on exhaustion of (retail) sellers.

3 trades, 3 contracts, 3 profits

today i took three trades on e-mini nasdaq 100, all were with three contracts only and all were closed it proper fixed trade management.

here is the screenshot showing the closed trades.

many people when they this screenshot or another screenshot with my trades have the idea that it was a mistake that i closed the trades so early.

sometimes people really wonder and ask me, why i don't hold on the trades longer, for a longer profits.

the answer?

i am an intraday trader, not a god.

i don't know if the price will move further or retreats back. i am not a prophet. and i don't try to be.

closing trades in a fixed trade management is the best thing you - as a trader - can do. 

because by closing them properly, you are not playing russian roulette. you are not positioning yourself in the place of "a prophet". you are simply doing your job correctly.

here is the results. 3 (little) trades, with only 3 contracts. 3 profits. + 730 usd netto. 

crawly lazy price

today´s e-mini markets were crawly, lazy and boring. the session started with a good tempo but quickly became really slow and tedious. the candlesticks were overlapping one another which is always a sign of an untradable market.

within the first hour, i haven´t seen any opportunity for opening a trade. i stayed a little bit longer and took this short on e-mini dow

this is the kind of entry that is more speculative and riskier. at first, i opened only three contracts and compensated to the full position a little bit higher.

anyway, only one part of the position (4 contracts out of 6) filled the target, the other half ended up at stop loss.

+100 usd today is a poor result for such a long time.

where this will go

today, the market was like extremely volatile and price jumped like a crazy frog, piercing through many levels as big market orders flew into it.

i tried to take short later in the night (was not at the pc earlier). i opened short right here, using compensation in a drawdown to scale up to six contract, which is my normal position.

i hit only the first target, the second ended up on sl. so the result was zero. but it could have been a nice trade

the first 2 trades in 2018

after a little break, i decided to continue publishing here on this small blog. i started to trade this week, over the christmas time i was in istanbul and did not have good access to the internet.

these two trades were based on the same logic - there are reactive sellers in the NQ that are supposed to be shaken off the market.

i take long against them

this was the first trade that had pretty cool timing entry. the price went up immediately, offered +700 usd profit in a couple of minutes

the second trade was here - opening six contracts as usual

 

again, virtually no drawdown. price runs up quickly, the exit was right here - this is a save exit, after that, the price fell down

orderflow aos based on acsil

this is the result of a 100% automatic strategy based on order flow that i have built in acsil - a sierra chart programming environment based on c++.

i am NOT a programmer and i have really hard time to write a piece of code. yet, i have a strong desire to learn and move forward.

it is trading live with 2 contracts only. after 2 days it made a profit almost 2 thousand usd. that is not a bad beginning i would say..