another non-volatile day

another slow, nonvolatile daily session. i came late to the charts again. so the most productive part of the day was over. what attracted my attention was the intermarket setup, three out of four markets were breaking daily high, only nasdaq (as usual) was losing. better observable on higher time frame.

this intermarket analysis tells me that there is going to be strong buying pressure on e-mini nasdaq. it is undervalued and hence it should move up, right? - im short against the heady buyers whose i consider less smart in this situation - buying liquidity is going to be abused for selling/moving the market price lower, and i speculate to that thing.. this is how the orderbook (footprint chart) looked like at that level

the second trade was nq long, the timing entry was very precise due to a combination of volume analysis with a break in a micro consolidation and times and sales tape where it was observable that the side of sellers is stupid and the side of buyers is smart - i am going with the smart one :-) .. low heat entry

the whole picture

es futures at historical maximum

today´s session was different due to the simple fact that es futures and dow jones futures being at the historical high. it was evident the market moved extremely slowly while checking out the new territory prices. the volatility was terrible and i had to be really patient for an entry setup. moreover, i came late to the charts, so the most volatile part of the day (after open) was over by the time i sat down in front of the screen. these days are not easy to trade as orderflow and volume analysis tends to be distorted due to weak market auction

i took only two trades today, first at nasdaq, second one at dow jones.

first one was biased with my presumption that the price should just move higher and higher. all day, all night. pretty simple and pretty silly. i appeared to be at the wrong side of the market and took a small loss of 20 usd

the trade at ym was a speculation against intermarket divergence that was too visible to a naked eye, and hence, tempting buyers to take long in this price levels. the longer dow jones stayed undervalued, the more comfortably i felt in the position (even when being in an open loss). the buyers were tempted to jump in in order to move the price higher and catch the other three markets that were clearly higher

of course it did not happen. the price move against them, into my profit. at the same time, there was a valid orderflow situation for short at nq and if i did not have an open deal at dow, i would have sold nq short

long against late sellers

this is a nice speculation against late sellers. it is basically a deal into the direction of a bullish trend, where i use the late sellers´ liquidity to book my profit.

the idea behind this is simple - by a long/fast bearish candle retreating from the high, the market tempts the late sellers that had missed the reversal at the highest high to jump in now. because now it is confirmed that the market took a turndown, the late sellers go into it, these are the guys who always wait for the confirmation, who always want to play safe, who never sell the highest high because it is "too risky".  obviously, they lose everytime, because they are late everywhere.

at the same time i can easily identify the accumulation of volume for the 1. target (the secondary liquidity of the high sellers that could be pulling their stoplosses into their break-even levels). this allows me to make the deal risk free

the anatomy of a tradable low in falling markets

except the extreme levels of tick nyse and tick nasdaq, this is a perfect example of a tradable daily low. these are the signs:

• all the four markets are rushing down, inducing panic of need to sell NOW for stupid (reactive) people, whose liquidity will be abused to move the market against them
• there is no intermarket divergence, thus i don´t need to be afraid of an abuse of buyers´ liquidity to move the price lower
• easily distinguishable volume clusters on the way down, therefore i know exactly the potential and risk of this trade
• wtr tape reader clearly shows diminishing power of sellers at the new prices, where from i know precisely when to click to take the trade
• market auction is perfectly unbalanced in the terms of lots of sellers being drawn into the market, therefore at least a part of them has to lose their money
• the distribution of volume on my entry footprint does not hold any strong elements of risk in the sense that there are not too much buyers yet - i am one of the first/fast who jumped long into this slump

a difficult day session

to me, today was extremely difficult day for trading orderflow, especially at nasdaq.

by mistake, i missed yesterday´s session because i thought it was holiday (...) and today´s market was hard to read for me.

erroneously, i started with first short at nq right at the time of report and got into a drawdown very quickly. the second trade was long and the level of price expansion - i consider it to be perfectly allright, although i was not able to get larger profit from it as i had expected. the last one was again with quite a drawdown - bad timing entry - i was able to bear the open loss just because the tape reader showed me clearly that the buyers are not strong enough at the highest high and so i expected the price to pull back to allow me to get into risk free trade.. it lasted couple of minutes but yes, it did at the end

e-mini nasdaq

e-mini dow jones was more more friendly. i took just one safe trade here and took profit cca 120 usd on it

luckily, i ended up this day with 240 usd profit but this table shows the disproportion between profit and drawdowns i went through. no need to comment..

aphorism no 1.

one of the most important breakthrough in my trading carreer was the ability to accept and tolerate confusion and omnipresent uncertainty

pfffffffffffffffff.....

i came to today´s charts cca one hour after open, thus, i missed the poopen´s rally in which i might have taken a loss as there was a valid short signal on the top of the very first candle. to me, today´s poopen´s market runup happened due to some bigger money building long possitions, both actively (buy market) and passively (buy limit).

because i came later to the seesion, it was too late to jump into the trend, moreover,  i took notice of the "bended back" price action, one of the symptoms telling me the price is too high for buyers.

i decided to took short as a speculation on the test of mid level. first contract here (basically due to the tempting limit orders at the dom)

the second on here (as i figured the liquidity moving lower..)

safe risk free position and speculation to mid

bad luck.. pffffffffffffffff....